The dollar slipped on Tuesday in thin, choppy trading after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a moderately dovish tone in his comments, suggesting that the U.S. central bank is more than likely to start its easing cycle later this year.
Powell, in a monetary policy conference in Portugal, said the U.S. economy has made significant progress on inflation as it gets back on the disinflationary path. His remarks were viewed as dovish, analysts said.
Comments by the Fed’s top official outweighed data showing U.S. job openings increased in May after posting outsized declines in the prior two months. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, rose 221,000 to 8.140 million on the last day of May, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS report.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.910 million job openings in May. Data for April was revised lower to show 7.919 million unfilled positions instead of the previously reported 8.059 million.
“Powell didn’t really say anything new, but I would say he was slightly dovish,” said Erik Bregar, director, FX & precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull in Toronto, adding that his remarks helped the dollar push a little lower.
“But I would argue that the JOLTS report is not as strong as it looks on the surface. The April number was revised down and so the market is trying to shake off the JOLTS report. That’s why the dollar is not as high as it was initially after the release.”
Following the JOLTS report and Powell’s comments, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 69% chance of a rate cut in September, up from about 63% on Monday, according to LSEG calculations. The market has also priced in one to two rate cuts in 2024.
In afternoon trading, the dollar index
The dollar has been recently supported overall by the persistent rise in Treasury yields.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yieldsDonald Trump will win the U.S. presidency, in turn leading to higher tariffs and government borrowing.
On Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year note pulled back, sliding 4.3 bps to 4.435%.
Against the yen
Japan’s finance minister said on Tuesday authorities were vigilant to sharp currency market moves, but stopped short of giving a clear intervention warning.
“The market just doesn’t believe it when the Bank of Japan and their monetary officials say that they’re monitoring the yen closely,” said Silver Gold Bull’s Bregar.
Against the euroAustralian dollar
The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.0741, showing little reaction to comments on Tuesday from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who was in the same monetary policy forum with Powell. She said the euro zone is “very advanced” on the disinflationary path but there remain “question marks” hanging over the outlook for economic growth.
Euro zone inflation eased last month but a crucial services component remained stubbornly high, fueling concern that domestic price pressures could stay at elevated levels.
The market is now looking to the second round of French elections during the weekend.
In other currencies, sterling
The Aussie dollar was up 0.1% at US$0.6668, with traders weighing central bank minutes, which showed much discussion about whether policy was tight enough to ensure inflation would slow as desired.
