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■ 1Q21 net profit at THB2.8bn, -33% yoy but up 125% qoq, was led by declining provision expense, while topline generation remains soft.

We value the company at an eight-year mean valuation as: 1. Core PAT growth will likely be 13.9% CAGR over FY21F-24F. This is lower than FY13-21 PAT growth of 34.7%. We forecast revenue to be 15% CAGR for FY21F-23F, lower than FY13-FY21F revenue growth of 16.2%. While revenue has mimicked past growth, earnings growth is lower and we value the company at a historical mean valuation. We do not assign any premium to it.

• The SBI-triazole market was largely flat in 2019, rising just +0.4% to reach US$3,212m over CY12-19. This market was flat over CY14-19, declining by 2.1% CAGR (Source: IHS Markit). • The impact of COVID-19 is likely to be higher for SBI-triazoles, given a higher relative exposure in the maize and oilseed rape/canola segments, which were impacted somewhat by the downturn in biofuel demand and, therefore, prices in 2020.

■ We forecast revenue growth at 15% CAGR and PAT at 13.9% CAGR over FY21F-24F for Astec Lifesciences ■ The key chemical segment SBI-triazole is facing demand headwinds, but we believe expansion into herbicides provides a growth opportunity.

In Feb 2012, SCC signed a joint venture agreement with Qatar Petroleum International Vietnam (QPI) and PetroVietnam (wholly owned by the Vietnamese government) to invest in Longson Petrochemical Company (LSP) with the aim to construct a mixed-feed olefins cracker with downstream facilities. Originally, SCC held 46% stake while QPI and PetroVietnam held 25% and 29% stakes, respectively. In Mar 2017, SCC announced to SET that it signed a share purchase agreement with QPI to acquire 25% equity stake in LSP.

We estimate that global propylene supply addition should reach 8-9mtpa during 2021-2022F, following naphtha cracker and refinery expansion in China. The startup of propane dehydrogenation projects (PDH) also looks accelerated at 2.8-4.1mtpa during 2021-2022F from 1.0mtpa during 2017-2019. Based on our estimates, 60-90% of additional propylene capacities are from China during 2021-2024F.

The strong demand for ethylene derivatives, particularly polyethylene (PE), and limited arrival of US cargoes should be able to offset the new supply pressure, in our view. In the case of excess supply, we believe the producers at the high end of the cost curve, such as methanol-based producers, are likely to lose market share to the low-cost players (most likely crude-oil-to-chemical complexes). Post 2023F, ethylene capacity additions should fall to 4-5mtpa.

■ We believe new ethylene capacity is well spread out during 1Q-3Q21F while strong ethylene derivative demand should continue to support ethylene price. ■ Global ethylene capacity addition looks slim post 2022F on limited expansion by US producers and potential delay of some ASEAN projects.

■ As IRPC’s crude inventory holding period is longer than other Thai refiners’, crude inventory gains were likely as high as US$10/bbl in 1Q21F.